The intensified attacks by the junta’s military forces in recent weeks has inflicted tremendous casualties and loss of life, but has not extended the junta’s control over the majority of the country. The few bases and townships recaptured the military junta from democratic and allied ethnic resistance forces represent isolated, temporary victories for the regime.
All that this has produced is more violence against the peoples of Myanmar, adding to the tragic loss of civilian lives, and provoking a greater determination of the people to overthrow the military junta.
Yet even if it fails to recapture territory from democratic and allied ethnic resistance forces, the military junta may still achieve its goals.
It works like this: the junta escalates military aggression against the people; more governments call for peace; and suddenly the sham elections look like a solution that’s “good enough” to stop the killing.
As the military junta has learned from events in other parts of the world, by escalating and killing more civilians, foreign governments will agree to “peace” deals that keep the regime in power, ignore the need for freedom and democracy, and ensure that no one in the current or new government is prosecuted for crimes against humanity.
(Of course real peace would come immediately if the military junta stopped its war on the people and surrendered its illegal hold on power.)
So as the military offensive intensifies, more governments are likely to accept the sham elections starting on 28 December 2025 as “good enough” or “better than nothing”.
If that happens then the human rights and democratic freedoms of the peoples of Myanmar – and hope – will suddenly be set aside in a “peace deal” that involves accepting sham elections.
